LeBron James Points - Player Prop Bet 2/26/2023

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LeBron James

NBA · Player Props

LeBron James

F · Los Angeles Lakers

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Los Angeles Lakers · Feb 26, 2023

Updated Feb 26, 2023 8:41 PM EST

Analysis

LeBron James Points Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-118/-104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 27.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 27.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

LeBron James has averaged 30.3 points per game this year, putting him among the best players in the NBA in this category: 100th percentile.
LeBron James has attempted 8.0 treys per game this year, ranking in the 98th percentile among all players in the league.
LeBron James has played 36.7 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the league: 99th percentile.
The Los Angeles Lakers rank as the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games.
The Los Angeles Lakers have played at the most up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games.

Favors Under

The matchup vs. Dallas is a tough one; when the Mavericks are playing at home, they have allowed the 15th-least points per game in the NBA to the other team's starting SFs this year (11.1).
The Mavericks have played at the most sluggish pace in the league this year, which ought to decrease possessions for the Lakers.
The Los Angeles Lakers check in as the 7th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA away from their home court this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. the Mavericks may be a difficult one for drawing fouls; the opposition's starting SFs have attempted a measly 2.3 free throws per game over the last 10 games (12th-least in the NBA).
LeBron James will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing on the road usually reduces stat production in all stat categories.

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