LeBron James Assists - Player Prop Bet 3/6/2024

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LeBron James

NBA · Player Props

LeBron James

F · Los Angeles Lakers

Assists

Los Angeles Lakers vs Sacramento Kings · Mar 6, 2024

Updated Mar 7, 2024 3:16 AM EST

Analysis

LeBron James Assists Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (+114/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

LeBron James has averaged 8.3 assists per game at home this year, putting him in the 99th percentile -- among the NBA's best by this metric.
LeBron James has played 34.2 minutes per game at home this year, ranking in the 91st percentile -- putting him among the most-used players in the league.
The 4th-speediest tempo offense in the league over the last 25 games has been the Lakers.
The Kings have given up the least offensive boards per game (9.0) in the league to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).
LeBron James ought to see a spike in output for all stats as a result of controlling the home court advantage in this game.

Favors Under

LeBron James has committed 0.1 technical fouls per game while playing at home this year, ranking in the 93rd percentile -- among the league's highest-fouling when it comes to getting T'ed up.
The Lakers will likely see a decline in opportunities in this game from competing against the 6th-most lethargic tempo offense in the league over the last 5 games (the Kings).
The Lakers check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

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