Larry Nance Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 1/29/2024

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Larry Nance Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Larry Nance Jr.

F-C · New Orleans Pelicans

Points

Boston Celtics vs New Orleans Pelicans · Jan 29, 2024

Updated Jan 30, 2024 3:58 AM EST

Analysis

Larry Nance Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Larry Nance Jr. has sunk 65.2% of his shots from behind the three-point arc over the last 15 games, 14.3% higher than he's converted from 3-point range overall this season.
This year, their opposition has shot 45.1% on shot attempts from the field (worst in the NBA) vs. the Boston Celtics, branding this as a difficult matchup.
The 6th-quickest tempo team in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the New Orleans Pelicans.
Offensive rebounds save possession and produce added opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Pelicans rank 7thbest in in the league with 10.9 offensive boards per game over the last 15 games.
Larry Nance Jr. has converted 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 25.0% higher than he's made overall this year.

Favors Under

As it relates to shots from behind the three-point arc, the 3rd-least aggressive team in the NBA away from their home court this year has been the New Orleans Pelicans.
The Pelicans are expected to suffer a drop-off in plays in this game from sharing the court with the 4th-slowest tempo home team in the league over the last 20 games (the Boston Celtics).
While on their home court, the Celtics have allowed the 3rd-most offensive rebounds per game (12.6) in the NBA to their opposition over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide new chances for scoring and assists).
Larry Nance Jr. figures to experience a decrease in production for all stats as a result of playing away from home in this matchup.

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