Larry Nance Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 3/30/2023

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Larry Nance Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Larry Nance Jr.

F-C · New Orleans Pelicans

Points

Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans · Mar 30, 2023

Updated Mar 31, 2023 2:06 AM EST

Analysis

Larry Nance Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Larry Nance Jr. has successfully made 73.1% of his field goals over the last 10 games, 13.2% more than he's converted in all games this year.
The New Orleans Pelicans rank as the 6th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 5 games away from their home court.
This matchup is a hard one for 3-pointers; when the Nuggets have the home court advantage, their opposition have posted the lowest three percentage in the NBA this year (32.4%).
Larry Nance Jr. has sunk 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 36.1% higher than he's converted overall this season.

Favors Under

Larry Nance Jr. has been called for 0.1 technical fouls per game this year, putting him among the most foul-prone players in the NBA when it comes to getting T'ed up (86th percentile).
The New Orleans Pelicans have played at the 9th-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games while on the road.
The Nuggets have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games, which ought to decrease possessions for the Pelicans.
The New Orleans Pelicans have been the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 20 games away from their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Nuggets have allowed the 9th-most offensive rebounds per game (10.9) in the league to opposing clubs over the last 7 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create added opportunities for scoring and assists).

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