Larry Nance Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 3/17/2023

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Larry Nance Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Larry Nance Jr.

F-C · New Orleans Pelicans

Points

Houston Rockets vs New Orleans Pelicans · Mar 17, 2023

Updated Mar 17, 2023 9:28 PM EST

Analysis

Larry Nance Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-135/+100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Larry Nance Jr. has converted 66.9% of his field goal attempts over the last 5 games, 16.3% higher than he's sunk over the course of the year.
Larry Nance Jr. has sunk 38.9% of his 3-point shots over the last 10 games on the road, 11.0% higher than he's converted from beyond the arc in all games this season when playing away from home.
The Rockets have played at the fastest pace-of-play in the league at home this year, which ought to lead to increased plays for the Pelicans.
The New Orleans Pelicans check in as the best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce new chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

The New Orleans Pelicans rank as the 8th-lowest scoring offense in the league without the home court advantage this year.
The New Orleans Pelicans have played at the 6th-slowest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games.
The Rockets have allowed the most offensive rebounds per game (12.2) in the league to opposing squads over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to new opportunities for scoring and assists).
This matchup may be a favorable one for getting to the foul line; when the Rockets are playing at home, the other team have attempted a whopping 29.4 foul shots per game over the last 5 games (2nd-most in the NBA).
Larry Nance Jr. will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing without the home court advantage generally decreases stat production for all stats.

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