Larry Nance Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 1/31/2023

NBA · Player Props

Larry Nance Jr.

F-C · New Orleans Pelicans

Points

Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans · Jan 31, 2023

Updated Apr 7, 2023 2:41 PM EST

Analysis

Larry Nance Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-104/-118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Larry Nance Jr. has sunk 56.4% of his field goal attempts this year, ranking him in the 87th percentile among all players in the NBA.
Larry Nance Jr. has converted 1.8 free throws per game over the last 5 games, 0.9 more than he's put through the hoop in all games this season.
The New Orleans Pelicans have been the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games while playing away from home (which can also provide new chances for scoring and assists).
The New Orleans Pelicans have played at the 5th-quickest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games without the home court advantage.
The matchup vs. the Nuggets is a favorable one for 3-pointers; at home, the other team have put up the highest three rate in the NBA this year (31.9%).

Favors Under

Larry Nance Jr. has tallied 0.1 technical fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the highest-fouling players in the league when it comes to getting T'ed up (84th percentile).
The Nuggets have allowed the 5th-least offensive rebounds per game (11.6) in the NBA to opposing squads over the last 15 games when playing at home (which also eliminates additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. the Nuggets may be a challenging one for getting to the free throw line; their opposition have attempted a lowly 25.9 free throws per game over the last 15 games while on his home court (4th-least in the NBA).
The New Orleans Pelicans check in as the least aggressive offense in the NBA without the home court advantage this year in terms of attempts from beyond the arc.
The Pelicans have played at the 7th-most lethargic pace in the league over the last 20 games, which should reduce plays for the Nuggets.