Larry Nance Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 1/24/2023

NBA · Player Props

Larry Nance Jr.

F-C · New Orleans Pelicans

Points

New Orleans Pelicans vs Denver Nuggets · Jan 24, 2023

Updated Apr 7, 2023 2:41 PM EST

Analysis

Larry Nance Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (+100/-122).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Larry Nance Jr. has converted 67.6% of his field goal attempts over the last 5 games, 11.1% more than he's put through the net in all games this season.
Larry Nance Jr. has made 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 9 games at home, 30.6% higher than he's put through the hoop in all games this season playing at home.
The New Orleans Pelicans rank as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games when playing at home (which can also create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
While on the road, the Nuggets have allowed the 4th-most offensive rebounds per game (9.5) in the NBA to their opposition this year (which also create added chances for scoring and assists).
Larry Nance Jr. will receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing on your home court usually boosts player production for all stats.

Favors Under

The matchup against the Nuggets may be a hard one for getting to the free throw line; opposing clubs have attempted a mere 28.0 free throws per game over the last 5 games (5th-least in the NBA).
The matchup against the Nuggets is a difficult one for shots from the field; while on the road, the other team have posted the 2nd-lowest Field Goal% in the NBA this year (50.8%).
The New Orleans Pelicans have been the 4th-least aggressive offense in the NBA this year when it comes to attempts from downtown.
The New Orleans Pelicans have played at the 10th-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games while on their home court.
The Pelicans have played at the 5th-most lethargic pace-of-play in the league over the last 15 games while traveling, which ought to reduce possessions for the Nuggets.