Larry Nance Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 1/18/2023

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Larry Nance Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Larry Nance Jr.

F-C · New Orleans Pelicans

Points

New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat · Jan 18, 2023

Updated Apr 7, 2023 2:41 PM EST

Analysis

Larry Nance Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-125/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Larry Nance Jr. has converted a whopping 56.4% of his field goal attempts this season, significantly more than his 50.7 rate last season.
Larry Nance Jr. has successfully made 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 9 games at home, 20.7% more than he's sunk overall this year while on his home court.
The New Orleans Pelicans have been the 8th-highest scoring offense in the NBA this year.
The Heat have allowed the most offensive rebounds per game (8.8) in the NBA to opposing squads this year (which also lead to new opportunities for scoring and assists).
The matchup against the Heat may be a good one for getting to the free throw line; their opposition have attempted a monstrous 20.7 foul shots per game this year (2nd-most in the NBA).

Favors Under

The matchup vs. the Heat is a difficult one for attempts from beyond the arc; opposing squads have averaged the 8th-least 3-point attempts per game in the NBA this year (36.2).
The New Orleans Pelicans have been the 2nd-least aggressive offense in the league this year when it comes to 3-point attempts.
The Pelicans have played at the 3rd-least up-tempo pace in the league this year, which ought to reduce possessions for the Heat.

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