Kyle Kuzma Points - Player Prop Bet 1/21/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Kyle Kuzma

F · Washington Wizards

Points

Washington Wizards vs Denver Nuggets · Jan 21, 2024

Updated Jan 21, 2024 11:17 PM EST

Analysis

Kyle Kuzma Points Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Kyle Kuzma has attempted 22.2 shots from the field per game over the last 5 games when playing at home, 3.3 more than he's attempted in all games this year at home.
Kyle Kuzma has attempted 9.2 shots from downtown per game over the last 5 games when playing at home, 1.6 higher than he's attempted overall this season at home.
Among all players in the league, Kyle Kuzma slots into the 82nd percentile for playing time, compiling a monstrous 31.2 minutes per game this year.
This year when they are playing at home, opposing starting PFs have shot 44.8% on 3-pointers (26th-highest in the league) vs. the Denver Nuggets, designating this as a good matchup.
The most up-tempo tempo team in the NBA this year has been the Washington Wizards.

Favors Under

Kyle Kuzma has averaged 0.4 technical fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.3 more than he's averaged over the course of the year.
The Wizards are expected to see a decline in plays in this game from squaring off against the least up-tempo pace-of-play away team in the NBA over the last 10 games (the Nuggets).
The Denver Nuggets have allowed the 10th-most offensive boards per game (11.0) in the league to their opposition over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
With respect to drawing fouls, the Washington Wizards's poor 18.6 foul shot attempts per game when playing at home ranks worst in the league this year.
The matchup vs. the Nuggets is a challenging one for getting to the free-throw line; opposing starting PFs have attempted a mere 2.6 foul shots per game this year (15th-least in the league).