Kristaps Porzingis Points - Player Prop Bet 1/7/2025

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NBA · Player Props

Kristaps Porzingis

F-C · Boston Celtics

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Boston Celtics · Jan 7, 2025

Updated Jan 8, 2025 3:04 AM EST

Analysis

Kristaps Porzingis Points Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The number of points registered against Dario Saric has been very high (24.2 per game) when he is on his home court and squaring off against opposing starting Cs since the start of last season (100th percentile).
The Denver Nuggets have played at the 4th-quickest tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games, which ought to boost plays for the Celtics.
The Celtics check in as the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create added opportunities for scoring and assists).
Kristaps Porzingis has sunk 4.2 foul shots per game this year, ranking him in the 94th percentile among all players in the league.
The clash with Dario Saric with respect to getting to the foul line comes in at only the 100th percentile for difficulty with the other side's starting Cs attempting a monstrous 8.0 foul shots per game since the start of last season when they are on the away squad.

Favors Under

In contrast to last season's 3.2 rate, Kristaps Porzingis's off the mark 3-pointers have increased this season to 3.9 per game.
Kristaps Porzingis has averaged 2.5 personal fouls per game this year, placing him among the most foul-prone players in the league (85th percentile).
When it comes to offense, the Celtics's subpar 46.0% field goal rate comes in as the 10th-worst in the league over the last 20 games.
The most sluggish tempo offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Boston Celtics.
Kristaps Porzingis will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home court generally worsens player performance in all stat categories.