Kristaps Porzingis Points - Player Prop Bet 4/29/2024

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Kristaps Porzingis

NBA · Player Props

Kristaps Porzingis

F-C · Boston Celtics

Points

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics · Apr 29, 2024

Updated Apr 29, 2024 9:51 PM EST

Analysis

Kristaps Porzingis Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Kristaps Porzingis has put up 19.8 points per game this year, putting him in the company of the best players in the league by this standard: 90th percentile.
Kristaps Porzingis has attempted 5.2 shots from behind the three-point arc per game this year, putting him in the 84th percentile out of all players in the league.
Kristaps Porzingis has averaged 29.7 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the league: 80th percentile.
The matchup against Bam Adebayo is a favorable one for field goals; when Adebayo is on his home court other starting Cs this year, they have made a whopping 61.8% of their shot attempts from the field (100th percentile).
Offensive rebounds preserve possession and generate extra opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Celtics grade out 7th-best in in the NBA away from their home court with 11.5 offensive boards per game over the last 15 games.

Favors Under

The Celtics have played at the most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games as the road team.
The Miami Heat have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should reduce possessions for the Celtics.
When it comes to getting to the foul line, the Celtics's unimpressive 16.2 free throw attempts per game comes in as the worst in the NBA over the last 15 games.
Kristaps Porzingis will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home stadium tends to decrease stat production across the board.

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