Kristaps Porzingis Points - Player Prop Bet 4/21/2024

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Kristaps Porzingis

NBA · Player Props

Kristaps Porzingis

F-C · Boston Celtics

Points

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat · Apr 21, 2024

Updated Apr 21, 2024 5:17 PM EST

Analysis

Kristaps Porzingis Points Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Kristaps Porzingis has successfully made 58.6% of his field goals over the last 5 games, 6.7% more than he's converted over the course of the season.
Kristaps Porzingis has sunk 55.4% of his shots from behind the three-point arc over the last 10 games at home, 12.0% more than he's converted overall this season while on his home court.
Among all players in the NBA, Kristaps Porzingis rates in the 75th percentile for playing time, totaling a monstrous 28.6 minutes per game playing at home this year.
The matchup against the Heat is a positive one for 3-point shots; the other team's starting PFs have compiled the 2nd-highest 3-point rate in the NBA this year (43.4%).
Offensive rebounds save possession and lead to extra chances for scoring and assists, and the Celtics grade out 8th-best in in the NBA with 10.9 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games.

Favors Under

The Celtics have played at the 3rd-slowest tempo in the league over the last 20 games.
The Boston Celtics are expected to suffer a reduction in possessions in this game from sharing the court with the most sluggish tempo away offense in the NBA this year (the Miami Heat).
Compared to last year's 6.4 clip, Kristaps Porzingis's number of free throws has been reduced this year to 5.3 free throws per game.
As a team, the Celtics have been poor at drawing fouls of late: worst in the league over the last 10 games, averaging a mere 14.9 free throws per game.
Over the last 10 games, the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted 1.8 foul shots per game (2nd-lowest in the league) against the Heat, facing an uphill battle to draw fouls.

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