Kristaps Porzingis Points - Player Prop Bet 4/3/2024

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Kristaps Porzingis

NBA · Player Props

Kristaps Porzingis

F-C · Boston Celtics

Points

Boston Celtics vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Apr 3, 2024

Updated Apr 4, 2024 12:57 AM EST

Analysis

Kristaps Porzingis Points Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Kristaps Porzingis has attempted 15.8 shots from the field per game over the last 10 games, 2.4 higher than he's attempted over the course of the year.
Kristaps Porzingis has averaged 29.0 minutes per game playing at home this year, putting him in the 75th percentile -- putting him among the most-used players in the NBA.
The number of points averaged against Chet Holmgren has been quite high (17.0 per game) when he is on the visiting team and matched up against other starting Cs this year (90th percentile).
The Oklahoma City Thunder have played at the 6th-quickest pace-of-play in the league over the last 20 games, which ought to increase possessions for the Boston Celtics.
The Boston Celtics check in as the 7th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Kristaps Porzingis has averaged 2.7 personal fouls per game while at home this year, ranking him in the 91st percentile -- among the NBA's most-whistled.
The least up-tempo pace-of-play team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Boston Celtics.
Kristaps Porzingis has converted a measly 4.6 free throws per game this season, quite a bit lower than his 5.5 rate last season.
As a team, the Celtics have been quite unsuccesful at drawing fouls recently: 2nd-worst in the league over the last 5 games playing at home, totaling a measly 15.4 foul shot attempts per game.

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