Kristaps Porzingis Points - Player Prop Bet 3/30/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Kristaps Porzingis

F-C · Boston Celtics

Points

New Orleans Pelicans vs Boston Celtics · Mar 30, 2024

Updated Mar 30, 2024 11:29 PM EST

Analysis

Kristaps Porzingis Points Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-118/-104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Kristaps Porzingis has attempted 18.0 field goals per game over the last 5 games when playing on the road, 4.3 higher than he's attempted in all games this season on the road.
Kristaps Porzingis has played 29.8 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA: 80th percentile.
The New Orleans Pelicans have played at the 10th-speediest pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games with the home court advantage, which should lead to more opportunities for the Celtics.
The Celtics have been the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games as the away team (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create new chances for scoring and assists).
The clash with Jonas Valanciunas with respect to drawing fouls lands in just the 90th percentile for difficulty with rival starting Cs attempting a colossal 3.4 free throws per game this year when they are on the away squad.

Favors Under

Out of all players in the league, Kristaps Porzingis measures in the 93rd percentile for personal fouls, totaling a monstrous 2.8 fouls per game this year.
The rate of shots from downtown scored against Jonas Valanciunas has been remarkably low (25.7%) when defending fellow starting Cs this year (7th percentile).
The least up-tempo pace-of-play road team in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Celtics.
In comparison to last season's 5.5 mark, Kristaps Porzingis's free throws made have fallen this season to 4.6 per game.
Kristaps Porzingis will not have the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing without the home court advantage tends to reduce player performance across the board.