Kristaps Porzingis Points - Player Prop Bet 3/20/2024

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Kristaps Porzingis

NBA · Player Props

Kristaps Porzingis

F-C · Boston Celtics

Points

Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks · Mar 20, 2024

Updated Mar 20, 2024 11:36 PM EST

Analysis

Kristaps Porzingis Points Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Kristaps Porzingis has sunk 3.2 shots from behind the three-point arc per game over the last 5 games, 1.2 more than he's sunk in all games this season.
The matchup vs. the Bucks is a positive one for threes; the opposing team's starting PFs have averaged the 7th-most three-point shots per game in the NBA this year (1.8).
The Bucks have played at the 5th-most up-tempo pace in the NBA this year, which should lead to more possessions for the Boston Celtics.
The Boston Celtics rank as the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create new chances for scoring and assists).
Kristaps Porzingis has made 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games at home, 14.3% more than he's sunk overall this year with the home court advantage.

Favors Under

Kristaps Porzingis has averaged 2.7 personal fouls per game while on his home court this year, placing him in the 90th percentile -- among the NBA's most-whistled.
The 4th-least up-tempo pace offense in the league over the last 15 games has been the Boston Celtics.
As a team, the Celtics have been quite unsuccesful at drawing fouls of late: worst in the league over the last 20 games, drawing a measly 17.0 foul shot attempts per game.
The matchup against the Bucks may be a hard one for getting to the free-throw line; the opposition's starting PFs have attempted a lowly 2.6 foul shots per game over the last 25 games (least in the league).

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