Kristaps Porzingis Points - Player Prop Bet 3/1/2024

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Kristaps Porzingis

NBA · Player Props

Kristaps Porzingis

F-C · Boston Celtics

Points

Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks · Mar 1, 2024

Updated Mar 2, 2024 2:43 AM EST

Analysis

Kristaps Porzingis Points Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 21.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Kristaps Porzingis has tallied 25.8 points per game over the last 5 games while on his home court, 5.2 more than he's tallied in all games this season at home.
With respect to offense, the Celtics's excellent 123.2 points per game settles in as the 2nd-highest in the league over the last 5 games.
The matchup vs. Dereck Lively II is a good one for shot attempts from beyond the arc; when defending other starting Cs this year, they have attempted a whopping 2.2 3-pointers per game (93rd percentile).
The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 4th-speediest tempo in the NBA away from their home city this year, which should boost possessions for the Celtics.
Kristaps Porzingis has made 6.6 foul shots per game over the last 5 games at home, 1.7 higher than he's put through the hoop overall this year with the home court advantage.

Favors Under

Kristaps Porzingis has averaged 2.7 personal fouls per game while at home this year, ranking in the 91st percentile -- among the league's most-whistled.
The 2nd-most lethargic pace team in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Celtics.
The Celtics rank as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).
The Dallas Mavericks have given up the 4th-most offensive boards per game (11.3) in the NBA to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to additional chances for scoring and assists).

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