Kristaps Porzingis Points - Player Prop Bet 2/7/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Kristaps Porzingis

F-C · Boston Celtics

Points

Boston Celtics vs Atlanta Hawks · Feb 7, 2024

Updated Feb 8, 2024 3:52 AM EST

Analysis

Kristaps Porzingis Points Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-108/-112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -106 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Kristaps Porzingis has converted 8.0 baskets per game over the last 5 games, 1.4 more than he's put through the hoop overall this season.
Kristaps Porzingis has played 29.8 minutes per game playing at home this year, putting him in the 77th percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the league.
This year when they are on their home court, the other team's starting PFs have totaled 21.1 points per game (28th-most in the NBA) vs. the Atlanta Hawks, resulting in a strong matchup for offensive efficiency.
The Atlanta Hawks have played at the most up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 20 games, which ought to boost possessions for the Celtics.
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and generate further chances for scoring and assists, and the Boston Celtics rank 12thbest in in the NBA at home with 12.4 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.

Favors Under

Kristaps Porzingis has accumulated 2.9 personal fouls per game this year, placing him among the highest-fouling players in the NBA (93rd percentile).
While playing away from home, the Atlanta Hawks have given up the 6th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.7) in the league to the other team over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce added opportunities for scoring and assists).
Kristaps Porzingis has sunk a lowly 4.6 foul shots per game this year, significantly lower than his 5.5 rate last year.
The number of fouls drawn by fellow starting PFs against Jalen Johnson has been very low this year (3.0 foul shot attempts per game when they are on their home court: 21st percentile).