Kristaps Porzingis Points - Player Prop Bet 2/4/2024

NBA · Player Props

Kristaps Porzingis

F-C · Boston Celtics

Points

Boston Celtics vs Memphis Grizzlies · Feb 4, 2024

Updated Feb 5, 2024 1:28 AM EST

Analysis

Kristaps Porzingis Points Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (+107/-143).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ +107.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Kristaps Porzingis has successfully made 3.0 treys per game over the last 5 games, 1.2 more than he's made from downtown overall this season.
Out of all players in the league, Kristaps Porzingis slots into the 76th percentile for playing time, registering an enormous 29.9 minutes per game while on his home court this year.
The matchup vs. Trey Jemison is a strong one; he has given up a monstrous 20.3 points per game when guarding fellow starting Cs since the start of last season (100th percentile).
The Celtics are expected to get a boost in opportunities in this game from facing the 6th-most up-tempo pace-of-play away offense in the league over the last 25 games (the Memphis Grizzlies).
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and generate bonus chances for scoring and assists, and the Celtics grade out 10thbest in in the league on their home court with 10.8 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games.

Favors Under

Kristaps Porzingis has successfully made just 6.5 field goals per game this year, significantly less than his 7.8 mark last year.
Among all players in the NBA, Kristaps Porzingis measures in the 94th percentile for personal fouls, logging an enormous 2.9 fouls per game this year.
The 3rd-slowest tempo home offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Celtics.
Away from their home court, the Memphis Grizzlies have allowed the 5th-most offensive boards per game (11.1) in the NBA to the other team over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists).
As it relates to drawing fouls, the Boston Celtics's subpar 15.8 free throw attempts per game as the home team ranks worst in the league over the last 5 games.