Kristaps Porzingis Points - Player Prop Bet 12/28/2023

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Kristaps Porzingis

NBA · Player Props

Kristaps Porzingis

F-C · Boston Celtics

Points

Boston Celtics vs Detroit Pistons · Dec 28, 2023

Updated Dec 29, 2023 3:53 AM EST

Analysis

Kristaps Porzingis Points Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 23.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Kristaps Porzingis has totaled 17.7 points per game at home this year, ranking him in the 83rd percentile -- among the league's best by this standard.
The number of points put up against Jalen Duren has been very high (16.3 per game) when squaring off against fellow starting Cs this year (100th percentile).
The Celtics are expected to see an increase in possessions in this game from competing against the 5th-speediest pace road offense in the league this year (the Pistons).
Offensive rebounds retain possession and generate further chances for scoring and assists, and the Boston Celtics grade out 1stbest in in the NBA with 13.6 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games.
Over the last 20 games, their opposition has come down with 10.0 offensive boards per game (4th-fewest in the NBA) vs. the Pistons (shortening possessions that could otherwise spark added opportunities for offense).

Favors Under

Kristaps Porzingis has accumulated 2.9 personal fouls per game when playing at home this year, ranking him in the 92nd percentile -- among the NBA's most foul-prone.
This matchup is a strong one for field goals; opposing teams have shot for the 2nd-highest field goal percentage in the league over the last 15 games (50.8%).
The 3rd-most lethargic tempo offense in the NBA over the last 20 games has been the Celtics.
As a team, the Boston Celtics have been poor at drawing fouls playing at home: 5th-worst in the NBA this year, drawing a measly 20.3 free throws per game.

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