Kristaps Porzingis Points - Player Prop Bet 12/20/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Kristaps Porzingis

F-C · Boston Celtics

Points

Sacramento Kings vs Boston Celtics · Dec 20, 2023

Updated Dec 21, 2023 3:56 AM EST

Analysis

Kristaps Porzingis Points Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Kristaps Porzingis has averaged 18.9 points per game this year, placing him among the best players in the league by this standard: 86th percentile.
Out of all players in the NBA, Kristaps Porzingis ranks in the 76th percentile for playing time, putting up a monstrous 30.3 minutes per game this year.
The Boston Celtics are expected to see a rise in opportunities today from sharing the court with the 7th-speediest pace-of-play home offense in the league this year (the Sacramento Kings).
The Boston Celtics have been the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Kings have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.1) in the league to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Out of all players in the NBA, Kristaps Porzingis slots into the 94th percentile for personal fouls, posting a colossal 3.1 fouls per game this year.
In terms of three-point shots, the Celtics's feeble 32.0% rate of successful threes while playing away from home places 3rd-worst in the NBA this year.
This matchup is a strong one for shots from the field; the other team has posted the 6th-highest FG% in the NBA this year (48.9%).
The number of three-pointers attempted against Domantas Sabonis has been very low (1.1 per game) when defending other starting Cs this year (10th percentile).
The Celtics have played at the 5th-most sluggish tempo in the NBA over the last 20 games.