Kristaps Porzingis Points - Player Prop Bet 11/20/2023

NBA · Player Props

Kristaps Porzingis

F-C · Boston Celtics

Points

Charlotte Hornets vs Boston Celtics · Nov 20, 2023

Updated Nov 21, 2023 12:03 AM EST

Analysis

Kristaps Porzingis Points Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In contrast to last season's 23.3 mark, Kristaps Porzingis's points per game have jumped this season to 22.3.
Kristaps Porzingis has made an impressive 57.1% of his field goals this year, quite a bit higher than his 49.9 mark last year.
The matchup against the Hornets is a strong one; they have given up the 30th-most points per game in the league to the other team's starting Cs since the start of last season (16.8).
The Boston Celtics have been the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 8 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide new opportunities for scoring and assists).
While on their home court, the Charlotte Hornets have given up the 6th-least offensive boards per game (9.8) in the league to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Kristaps Porzingis has accumulated 3.4 personal fouls per game this year, making him one of the most highest-fouling players in the league (94th percentile).
The slowest tempo offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Celtics.
The Charlotte Hornets have played at the 9th-slowest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games, which ought to decrease plays for the Boston Celtics.
As a team, the Boston Celtics have been bad at getting to the foul line while playing on the road: 6th-worst in the league this year, averaging a lowly 20.8 free throws per game.
The matchup against the Hornets is a difficult one for getting to the charity stripe; the opposing team's starting Cs have attempted just 2.0 foul shots per game this year (14th-least in the league).