Kristaps Porzingis Points - Player Prop Bet 3/22/2023

NBA · Player Props

Kristaps Porzingis

F-C · Washington Wizards

Points

Washington Wizards vs Denver Nuggets · Mar 22, 2023

Updated Mar 22, 2023 11:11 PM EST

Analysis

Kristaps Porzingis Points Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 26.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Kristaps Porzingis has sunk 10.0 shots made from the field per game over the last 5 games at home, 2.0 more than he's made overall this season while on his home court.
Kristaps Porzingis has attempted 5.5 3-point shots per game this year, placing him in the 87th percentile among all players in the league.
Kristaps Porzingis has been on the court for 32.3 minutes per game while playing at home this year, ranking him in the 85th percentile -- putting him among the most-utilized players in the NBA.
The Washington Wizards check in as the 7th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league over the last 10 games while on their home court.
Kristaps Porzingis has attempted 8.9 foul shots per game over the last 7 games while on his home court, 2.6 more than he's attempted over the course of the season at home.

Favors Under

The matchup vs. Denver is a hard one; when the Nuggets are on the road, they have given up the 15th-least points per game in the league to opposing starting PFs this year (12.8).
The Washington Wizards have played at the 3rd-most sluggish pace in the league over the last 10 games.
The Nuggets have played at the slowest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should reduce possessions for the Wizards.
The Washington Wizards have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).
When playing on the road, the Nuggets have given up the 5th-most offensive rebounds per game (12.8) in the league to the other team over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists).