Kristaps Porzingis Points - Player Prop Bet 3/10/2023

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Kristaps Porzingis

NBA · Player Props

Kristaps Porzingis

F-C · Washington Wizards

Points

Washington Wizards vs Atlanta Hawks · Mar 10, 2023

Updated Mar 11, 2023 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Kristaps Porzingis Points Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-105/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 24.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 24.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Kristaps Porzingis has averaged 25.4 points per game over the last 5 games, 5.2 higher than he's averaged over the course of the year.
Kristaps Porzingis has sunk 55.3% of his 3-pointers over the last 5 games, 27.0% higher than he's made from downtown overall this year.
The Washington Wizards have played at the 10th-speediest pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games.
When playing away from home, the Hawks have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (5.8) in the NBA to the other team over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).
As a team, the Washington Wizards have been terrific at drawing fouls while at home: 10th-best in the league this year, drawing 23.0 free throws per game.

Favors Under

Kristaps Porzingis has tallied 2.7 personal fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the highest-fouling players in the league (91st percentile).
The matchup vs. Atlanta is a tough one for attempts from downtown; when the Hawks are the visiting squad, opposing starting PFs have totaled the 14th-least three attempts per game in the league this year (3.2).
The Hawks have played at the 9th-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should reduce plays for the Wizards.
The Washington Wizards check in as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games while at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists).

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