Kristaps Porzingis Points - Player Prop Bet 3/4/2023

NBA · Player Props

Kristaps Porzingis

F-C · Washington Wizards

Points

Washington Wizards vs Toronto Raptors · Mar 4, 2023

Updated Mar 4, 2023 10:11 PM EST

Analysis

Kristaps Porzingis Points Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-114/-106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 23.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Kristaps Porzingis has posted 25.4 points per game over the last 5 games, 5.2 higher than he's posted in all games this year.
Kristaps Porzingis has sunk 55.3% of his three-point attempts over the last 5 games, 27.0% more than he's made from three over the course of the year.
The Washington Wizards have played at the 10th-speediest pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games.
While on the road, the Raptors have given up the 6th-least offensive rebounds per game (9.4) in the league to opposing teams over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).
As a team, the Washington Wizards have been terrific at drawing fouls while on their home court: 10th-best in the NBA this year, drawing 23.0 foul shot attempts per game.

Favors Under

Kristaps Porzingis has tallied 2.7 personal fouls per game this year, making him one of the most foul-prone players in the league (91st percentile).
The matchup vs. Toronto is a hard one; when the Raptors are the visiting team, they have given up the 13th-least points per game in the NBA to opposing starting PFs this year (12.6).
The Raptors have played at the 2nd-most lethargic pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games, which should decrease possessions for the Wizards.
The Washington Wizards check in as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).
The matchup against Toronto is a hard one for getting to the free throw line; the other team's starting PFs have attempted a mere 2.2 foul shots per game this year when the Raptors are away from home (15th-least in the league).