Kris Murray Points - Player Prop Bet 3/23/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Kris Murray

F · Portland Trail Blazers

Points

Portland Trail Blazers vs Denver Nuggets · Mar 23, 2024

Updated Mar 24, 2024 2:01 AM EST

Analysis

Kris Murray Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Kris Murray has made 58.4% of his shots from the field over the last 5 games at home, 12.7% higher than he's sunk in all games this year while playing at home.
Kris Murray has successfully made 1.8 threes per game over the last 5 games at home, 0.8 higher than he's made from three overall this year when playing at home.
Kris Murray has played 29.9 minutes per game over the last 15 games, 11.4 higher than he's played in all games this season.
The Trail Blazers check in as the best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA while on their home court this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create added opportunities for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. Denver is a positive one for getting to the free-throw line; the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted an enormous 3.2 free throws per game this year when the Denver Nuggets are the visiting team (10th-most in the NBA).

Favors Under

Kris Murray has averaged 2.4 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.1 higher than he's averaged over the course of the season.
When it comes to shooting, the Trail Blazers's subpar 104.5 points per game when playing at home ranks 2nd-fewest in the NBA over the last 15 games.
This year when they are playing at home, the opposing team's starting SFs have totaled 1.1 3-pointers per game (fewest in the league) vs. the Nuggets, identifying this as a hard matchup.
The 3rd-most lethargic pace-of-play home team in the NBA this year has been the Portland Trail Blazers.
The Denver Nuggets have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace in the NBA over the last 25 games on the road, which ought to lead to decreased opportunities for the Trail Blazers.