Killian Hayes Points - Player Prop Bet 11/5/2023

NBA · Player Props

Killian Hayes

G · Detroit Pistons

Points

Detroit Pistons vs Phoenix Suns · Nov 5, 2023

Updated Nov 5, 2023 7:51 PM EST

Analysis

Killian Hayes Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This matchup is a difficult one for field goals; when the Suns are the visiting team, opposing squads have shot for the 7th-lowest Field Goal% in the league against them since the start of last season (47.1%).
The 10th-fastest tempo road team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Pistons.
The {OPP_TEAM} are expected to see an increase in possessions in this game from squaring off against the 7th-fastest pace home offense in the league over the last 6 games (the Phoenix Suns).
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and generate bonus chances for scoring and assists, and the Pistons grade out 7thbest in in the league while playing at home with 11.3 offensive boards per game since the start of last season.
Since the start of last season when they are at home, opposing starting SGs have attempted 3.2 foul shots per game (24th-most in the league) vs. the Suns, easily managing to get to the free-throw line.

Favors Under

Among all players in the NBA, Killian Hayes comes in at the 7th percentile for shooting performance with a a bad 35.0% rate since the start of last season.
Among all players in the NBA, Killian Hayes rates in the 15th percentile for three-point ability with a a lackluster 23.8% rate since the start of last season.
Killian Hayes has committed 2.7 personal fouls per game when playing on the road since the start of last season, placing him in the 86th percentile -- among the league's most foul-prone.
When it comes to scoring, the Pistons's lackluster 110.3 points per game settles in as the 2nd-fewest in the NBA since the start of last season.
Since the start of last season when they are away from home, opposing starting SGs have totaled 5.5 three attempts per game (11th-fewest in the NBA) against the Suns, identifying this as a tough matchup.