Killian Hayes Points - Player Prop Bet 11/2/2023

NBA · Player Props

Killian Hayes

G · Detroit Pistons

Points

New Orleans Pelicans vs Detroit Pistons · Nov 2, 2023

Updated Nov 3, 2023 3:03 AM EST

Analysis

Killian Hayes Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pistons have played at the 7th-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games while at home.
The Pelicans have played at the 10th-quickest pace-of-play in the league at home this year, which should lead to increased plays for the Pistons.
The Detroit Pistons have been the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA while on their home court since the start of last season (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce additional chances for scoring and assists).
Since the start of last season when they are at home, the other team has nabbed 9.8 offensive boards per game (6th-fewest in the NBA) vs. the New Orleans Pelicans (lessening possessions that could otherwise produce more opportunities for offense).
Since the start of last season, opposing starting SGs have attempted 3.2 foul shots per game (25th-most in the NBA) against the Pelicans, making it fairly effortless to get to the free-throw line.

Favors Under

Killian Hayes has made 33.3% of his field goals since the start of last season, placing him in the 6th percentile among all players in the league.
Killian Hayes has converted 24.4% of his 3-point shots while playing on the road since the start of last season, ranking him in the 19th percentile among all players in the league.
Killian Hayes has tallied 2.9 personal fouls per game playing at home since the start of last season, ranking him in the 92nd percentile -- among the NBA's highest-fouling.
The Detroit Pistons have been the 2nd-lowest scoring offense in the NBA since the start of last season.
The matchup vs. New Orleans is a challenging one for threes; when the Pelicans are playing at home, the other team's starting SGs have shot for the 14th-lowest 3-point rate in the league since the start of last season (27.7%).