Killian Hayes Points - Player Prop Bet 3/16/2023

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Killian Hayes

NBA · Player Props

Killian Hayes

G · Detroit Pistons

Points

Detroit Pistons vs Denver Nuggets · Mar 16, 2023

Updated Mar 16, 2023 10:56 PM EST

Analysis

Killian Hayes Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-105/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Killian Hayes has attempted 11.8 shots from the field per game over the last 5 games, 4.9 higher than he's attempted in all games this season.
The matchup vs. the Nuggets is a strong one for threes; the other team's starting PGs have put up the 30th-highest 3-point rate in the NBA this year (36.5%).
The Detroit Pistons have played at the 8th-fastest pace in the league over the last 5 games.
The Nuggets have played at the 6th-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games, which should boost opportunities for the Pistons.
The Detroit Pistons rank as the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create new opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Killian Hayes has been called for 2.9 personal fouls per game while at home this year, putting him in the 91st percentile -- among the league's most foul-prone.
The Detroit Pistons have been the 3rd-lowest scoring offense in the NBA this year.
The matchup vs. the Nuggets is a difficult one for drawing fouls; the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted just 3.2 foul shots per game this year (11th-least in the league).

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