Kevin Durant Points - Player Prop Bet 2/28/2026

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Kevin Durant

NBA · Player Props

Kevin Durant

F · Houston Rockets

Points

Miami Heat vs Houston Rockets · Feb 28, 2026

Updated Feb 28, 2026 7:58 PM EST

Analysis

Kevin Durant Points Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (+110/-113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 26.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Kevin Durant has logged 28.8 points per game over the last 5 games, 3.9 higher than he's logged overall this year.
This year when they are the visiting team, the opposing team's starting PFs have shot 46.4% on threes (highest in the league) against the Heat, making this a strong matchup.
The Rockets are expected to see a rise in plays today from squaring off against the quickest pace offense in the league this year (the Heat).
The Houston Rockets check in as the best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create additional chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

The Rockets have been the 3rd-lowest scoring offense in the league over the last 25 games.
The Rockets have played at the most sluggish tempo in the NBA over the last 20 games when playing away from home.
Over the last 10 games, opposing starting PFs have attempted 1.8 foul shots per game (2nd-lowest in the league) vs. the Miami Heat, struggling to get to the free-throw line.

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