Kevin Durant Points - Player Prop Bet 3/26/2025

reorder

NBA · Player Props

Kevin Durant

F · Phoenix Suns

Points

Phoenix Suns vs Boston Celtics · Mar 26, 2025

Updated Mar 27, 2025 1:59 AM EST

Analysis

Kevin Durant Points Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-139/+104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 25.5 @ -107 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -139.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Kevin Durant has sunk 57.9% of his 3-point attempts over the last 10 games at home, 10.5% more than he's made from beyond the arc overall this year while at home.
Out of all players in the league, Kevin Durant measures in the 99th percentile for playing time, posting a whopping 37.0 minutes per game this year.
In terms of scoring, the Suns's stellar 121.8 points per game playing at home settles in as the 6th-best in the league over the last 5 games.
Kevin Durant has converted 6.0 free throws per game over the last 5 games, 1.1 higher than he's sunk overall this season.
Kevin Durant will enjoy the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing with the home court advantage generally raises player performance in all stat categories.

Favors Under

This year, the other team's starting PFs have put up 14.5 points per game (2nd-lowest in the league) against the Boston Celtics, identifying this as a difficult matchup for offensive production.
The 4th-slowest pace-of-play offense in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the Phoenix Suns.
The Suns are expected to suffer a drop-off in opportunities in this contest from facing the slowest tempo offense in the league over the last 25 games (the Boston Celtics).
The Suns have been the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).
This year when they have the home court advantage, the opposition's starting PFs have attempted 3.1 free throws per game (8th-fewest in the league) vs. the Boston Celtics, facing an uphill battle to get to the foul line.