Kevin Durant Points - Player Prop Bet 3/4/2025

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Kevin Durant

NBA · Player Props

Kevin Durant

F · Phoenix Suns

Points

Phoenix Suns vs LA Clippers · Mar 4, 2025

Updated Mar 5, 2025 2:59 AM EST

Analysis

Kevin Durant Points Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-139/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 24.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Kevin Durant has compiled 26.7 points per game this year, placing him among the best players in the NBA by this standard: 99th percentile.
Kevin Durant has attempted 7.2 shots from downtown per game over the last 5 games, 1.2 more than he's attempted over the course of the year.
Kevin Durant has been on the court for 36.6 minutes per game while playing at home this year, putting him in the 98th percentile -- ranking among the most used players in the NBA.
The Phoenix Suns check in as the 9th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 5 games.
Kevin Durant is expected to see a spike in efficiency for all stats on account of holding the home court advantage in this matchup.

Favors Under

Kevin Durant has accumulated 2.6 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games on his home court, 0.8 more than he's accumulated over the course of the year at home.
This year when they have the home court advantage, opposing starting SFs have shot 43.3% on shots from the field (5th-weakest in the NBA) against the LA Clippers, identifying this as a difficult matchup.
The Phoenix Suns have played at the 5th-least up-tempo pace in the league over the last 15 games as the home team.
The Clippers have played at the 5th-slowest pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games while traveling, which ought to decrease opportunities for the Suns.
The Phoenix Suns rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).

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