Kevin Durant Points - Player Prop Bet 4/1/2024

NBA · Player Props

Kevin Durant

F · Phoenix Suns

Points

New Orleans Pelicans vs Phoenix Suns · Apr 1, 2024

Updated Apr 1, 2024 11:41 PM EST

Analysis

Kevin Durant Points Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Kevin Durant has successfully made 60.9% of his field goals over the last 5 games on the road, 7.5% more than he's sunk overall this year when playing on the road.
Kevin Durant has sunk 2.8 three-point shots per game over the last 5 games, 0.6 more than he's converted from beyond the arc overall this year.
Kevin Durant has been on the court for 37.1 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-used players in the league: 99th percentile.
The Suns check in as the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce added opportunities for scoring and assists).
The matchup against New Orleans may be a good one for getting to the free-throw line; opposing starting PFs have attempted an enormous 3.7 foul shots per game over the last 15 games when the Pelicans are at home (7th-most in the NBA).

Favors Under

As it relates to three-point attempts, the 5th-least aggressive team in the NBA this year has been the Phoenix Suns.
The matchup against New Orleans is a tough one for shot attempts from downtown; when the New Orleans Pelicans are on their home court, the opposing team's starting PFs have tallied the 5th-least 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (3.4).
The Phoenix Suns will likely experience a decrease in plays in this game from competing against the 9th-slowest pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the New Orleans Pelicans).
Kevin Durant has attempted a measly 5.9 free throws per game this year, a sizeable decrease from his 7.4 rate last year.
Kevin Durant will not possess the home court advantage in this contest. Playing away from your home stadium generally reduces player production in all stat categories.