Kevin Durant Points - Player Prop Bet 3/7/2024

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Kevin Durant

NBA · Player Props

Kevin Durant

F · Phoenix Suns

Points

Phoenix Suns vs Toronto Raptors · Mar 7, 2024

Updated Mar 8, 2024 2:51 AM EST

Analysis

Kevin Durant Points Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-148/+108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 29.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -148.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Kevin Durant has attempted 21.4 shots per game over the last 5 games, 2.1 higher than he's attempted overall this year.
Kevin Durant has tallied 37.3 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA: 99th percentile.
In comparison to last year's 0.2 mark, Kevin Durant's technical fouls have tailed off this year to 0.1 per game.
The Suns check in as the 4th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 15 games.
This year when they are at home, the opposition's starting SFs have totaled 2.8 three-pointers per game (30th-highest in the NBA) vs. the Toronto Raptors, creating a favorable matchup.

Favors Under

The Suns check in as the 8th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league playing at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Toronto Raptors have given up the most offensive boards per game (12.1) in the league to opposing teams over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to additional chances for scoring and assists).
Compared to last season's 6.8 rate, Kevin Durant's foul shots scored have dropped this season to 5.5 per game.
Over the last 25 games, the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted 2.7 foul shots per game (12th-lowest in the league) against the Raptors, making it tough to get to the foul line.

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