Kevin Durant Points - Player Prop Bet 3/3/2024

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Kevin Durant

NBA · Player Props

Kevin Durant

F · Phoenix Suns

Points

Phoenix Suns vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Mar 3, 2024

Updated Mar 4, 2024 2:47 AM EST

Analysis

Kevin Durant Points Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-130/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 27.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Kevin Durant has attempted 6.4 threes per game over the last 10 games on his home court, 1.6 more than he's attempted overall this season at home.
Kevin Durant has played 37.2 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the NBA: 99th percentile.
Kevin Durant has averaged just 0.1 technical fouls per game this year, a sizeable decrease from his 0.2 technicals per game last year.
The Suns have played at the 2nd-speediest tempo in the league over the last 15 games.
The Suns are expected to see a spike in opportunities today from facing the 3rd-fastest tempo team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Oklahoma City Thunder).

Favors Under

The Phoenix Suns have been the 3rd-least aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 15 games in terms of shot attempts from downtown.
The matchup against Oklahoma is a difficult one; when the Thunder are away from home, they have given up the 13th-least points per game in the NBA to the opposing team's starting PFs over the last 5 games (11.0).
This year, opposing squads have captured 12.5 offensive boards per game (most in the NBA) against the Thunder (continuing possessions that can produce bonus chances for offense).
In comparison to last season's 6.8 mark, Kevin Durant's foul shots scored have decreased this season to 5.5 per game.

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