Kevin Durant Points - Player Prop Bet 2/29/2024

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Kevin Durant

NBA · Player Props

Kevin Durant

F · Phoenix Suns

Points

Phoenix Suns vs Houston Rockets · Feb 29, 2024

Updated Mar 1, 2024 2:22 AM EST

Analysis

Kevin Durant Points Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-160/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 27.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Kevin Durant has posted 28.0 points per game this year, putting him in the company of the best players in the league by this standard: 99th percentile.
Out of all players in the NBA, Kevin Durant lands in the 99th percentile for playing time, putting up a monstrous 37.1 minutes per game this year.
In comparison to last year's 0.2 rate, Kevin Durant's technical fouls have decreased this year to 0.1 per game.
The Suns have played at the 2nd-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games.
The Suns will likely see an increase in plays in this game from facing the 5th-fastest tempo road team in the league over the last 10 games (the Rockets).

Favors Under

When it comes to threes, the Phoenix Suns's lackluster 12.1 successful threes per game while on their home court settles in as the 8th-fewest in the league this year.
This year, the opposing team's starting PFs have shot 21.7% on 3-pointers (15th-worst in the NBA) vs. the Houston Rockets, labeling this as a challenging matchup.
The Houston Rockets have given up the 5th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.8) in the league to opposing squads over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide new chances for scoring and assists).
Kevin Durant has sunk just 5.5 foul shots per game this year, quite a bit lower than his 6.8 rate last year.

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