Kevin Durant Points - Player Prop Bet 1/24/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Kevin Durant

F · Phoenix Suns

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Phoenix Suns · Jan 24, 2024

Updated Jan 25, 2024 1:38 AM EST

Analysis

Kevin Durant Points Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-115/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 29.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 30.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Kevin Durant has successfully made 12.0 field goals per game over the last 5 games, 1.5 more than he's put through the net over the course of the year.
In comparison to last season's 37.3% rate, Kevin Durant's 3-point prowess has increased this season to 46.8%.
Kevin Durant has tallied 37.1 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the league: 100th percentile.
As it relates to shooting, the Suns's excellent 123.4 points per game as the visting team ranks 2nd-strongest in the league over the last 5 games.
The matchup against the Mavericks is a good one for shot attempts from the field; the opposition's starting PFs have averaged the 30th-most FG attempts per game in the NBA this year (16.0).

Favors Under

Kevin Durant has tallied 2.8 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.9 higher than he's tallied over the course of the season.
The Phoenix Suns have played at the 5th-most lethargic pace in the league over the last 15 games when playing away from home.
The Mavericks have played at the 8th-most lethargic pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games on their home court, which ought to decrease possessions for the Phoenix Suns.
Offensive rebounds preserve possession and result in extra chances for scoring and assists, but the Phoenix Suns rank 1stworst in in the league with a mere 6.6 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.
While playing at home, the Dallas Mavericks have given up the 2nd-most offensive rebounds per game (12.5) in the league to opposing teams over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create additional chances for scoring and assists).