Kevin Durant Points - Player Prop Bet 11/29/2023

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Kevin Durant

NBA · Player Props

Kevin Durant

F · Phoenix Suns

Points

Toronto Raptors vs Phoenix Suns · Nov 29, 2023

Updated Nov 30, 2023 12:37 AM EST

Analysis

Kevin Durant Points Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-122/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 29.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 28.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Kevin Durant has attempted 23.1 field goals per game this year, quite a bit more than his 18.7 mark last year.
Relative to last year's 37.3% rate, Kevin Durant's 3-point proficiency has increased this year to 53.9%.
Among all players in the league, Kevin Durant ranks in the 99th percentile for playing time, averaging a massive 36.5 minutes per game while playing away from home this year.
The Toronto Raptors have played at the 10th-speediest tempo in the league over the last 5 games away from their home stadium, which ought to raise opportunities for the Phoenix Suns.
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and result in more chances for scoring and assists, and the Suns grade out 7thbest in in the NBA with 12.2 offensive boards per game this year.

Favors Under

This year when they are on the road, opposing starting PFs have averaged 43.2% on shot attempts from the field (9th-lowest in the league) against the Raptors, branding this as a challenging matchup.
The slowest tempo home team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Phoenix Suns.
This year when they are playing at home, the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted 2.3 free throws per game (15th-lowest in the NBA) against the Raptors, finding it difficult to draw fouls.
Kevin Durant will not hold the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing without the home court advantage generally lowers stat production for all stats.

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