Kevin Durant Points - Player Prop Bet 11/21/2023

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Kevin Durant

NBA · Player Props

Kevin Durant

F · Phoenix Suns

Points

Phoenix Suns vs Portland Trail Blazers · Nov 21, 2023

Updated Nov 22, 2023 2:17 AM EST

Analysis

Kevin Durant Points Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-130/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 28.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Kevin Durant has posted 29.5 points per game this year, placing him among the best players in the NBA by this metric: 99th percentile.
In comparison to last year's 37.3% clip, Kevin Durant's 3-point efficiency has jumped this year to 48.7%.
Among all players in the NBA, Kevin Durant lands in the 95th percentile for playing time, posting a colossal 35.2 minutes per game this year.
As it relates to scoring, the Suns's stellar 117.1 points per game at home rates 8th-highest in the NBA this year.
Kevin Durant has attempted 8.5 foul shots per game this year, significantly more than his 7.4 mark last year.

Favors Under

Since the start of last season, the opposition's starting PFs have shot 28.7% on three-pointers (12th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Trail Blazers, identifying this as a tough matchup.
The 5th-least up-tempo pace home team in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Phoenix Suns.
The Trail Blazers have played at the 8th-most sluggish pace in the league away from their home stadium this year, which ought to lead to fewer opportunities for the Phoenix Suns.
The Suns rank as the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA as the away team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).
On their home court, the Trail Blazers have allowed the 10th-most offensive boards per game (11.9) in the NBA to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists).

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