Kevin Durant Points - Player Prop Bet 11/17/2023

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Kevin Durant

NBA · Player Props

Kevin Durant

F · Phoenix Suns

Points

Utah Jazz vs Phoenix Suns · Nov 17, 2023

Updated Nov 18, 2023 3:15 AM EST

Analysis

Kevin Durant Points Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 28.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 27.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Compared to last year's 18.7 rate, Kevin Durant's field goal attempts have increased this year to 22.6 per game.
Out of all players in the league, Kevin Durant lands in the 99th percentile for playing time, putting up a whopping 36.2 minutes per game at home this year.
This year when they are at home, the opposition's starting PFs have averaged 6.6 three attempts per game (29th-most in the NBA) vs. the Jazz, branding this as a favorable matchup.
The Jazz have played at the 6th-fastest pace in the league on their home court this year, which ought to boost opportunities for the Suns.
Offensive rebounds continue possession and create further chances for scoring and assists, and the Suns rank 11thbest in in the NBA while on the road with 13.8 offensive rebounds per game this year.

Favors Under

The Suns have been the 9th-lowest scoring offense in the league this year.
The 4th-most sluggish tempo team in the league over the last 10 games has been the Suns.
At home, the Utah Jazz have given up the 9th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.6) in the NBA to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide additional chances for scoring and assists).
Kevin Durant will not possess the home court advantage in this contest. Playing without the home court advantage generally lowers player production across the board.

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