Kevin Durant Points - Player Prop Bet 11/2/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Kevin Durant

F · Phoenix Suns

Points

Phoenix Suns vs San Antonio Spurs · Nov 2, 2023

Updated Nov 3, 2023 2:11 AM EST

Analysis

Kevin Durant Points Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-135/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 27.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Among all players in the NBA, Kevin Durant measures in the 99th percentile for playing time, averaging a massive 36.2 minutes per game while playing at home since the start of last season.
Since the start of last season, the other team's starting PFs have averaged 48.5% on shot attempts from the field (24th-best in the NBA) vs. the Spurs, designating this as a strong matchup.
The San Antonio Spurs have played at the 6th-quickest tempo in the league away from their home city this year, which should boost plays for the Suns.
Offensive rebounds retain possession and bring about bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Phoenix Suns rank 9thbest in in the league when playing away from home with 11.5 offensive boards per game since the start of last season.
Since the start of last season when they are on their home court, opposing teams have collected 10.1 offensive rebounds per game (9th-fewest in the NBA) against the Spurs (diminishing possessions that could otherwise create additional opportunities for offense).

Favors Under

Kevin Durant has made 51.7% of his field goals over the last 12 games at home, 16.2% lower than he's sunk overall this year at home.
Kevin Durant has accumulated 1.8 personal fouls per game over the last 10 games, 1.3 higher than he's accumulated overall this year.
Since the start of last season, the other team has averaged 38.8% on 3-pointers (best in the NBA) vs. the Spurs, identifying this as a favorable matchup.
As a team, the Phoenix Suns have been quite unsuccesful at drawing fouls playing at home: 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season, drawing a measly 21.9 foul shots per game.