Kevin Durant Points - Player Prop Bet 5/9/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Kevin Durant

F · Phoenix Suns

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns · May 9, 2023

Updated May 10, 2023 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Kevin Durant Points Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 31.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 30.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Kevin Durant has attempted 23.0 shots from the field per game over the last 5 games, 4.4 more than he's attempted over the course of the season.
Kevin Durant has successfully made 1.9 threes per game away from home this year, ranking in the 83rd percentile among all players in the league.
Kevin Durant has played 42.0 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 5.8 more than he's played in all games this year.
The Phoenix Suns have been the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league while on the road this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to new chances for scoring and assists).
Kevin Durant has attempted 8.4 free throws per game over the last 5 games, 1.0 more than he's attempted over the course of the year.

Favors Under

The matchup against Denver is a challenging one for field goal attempts; when the Nuggets are on their home court, the other team's starting PFs have totaled the 11th-least field goal attempts per game in the league this year (11.2).
The Phoenix Suns have played at the 8th-most lethargic pace in the NBA while playing away from home this year.
The Nuggets have played at the 3rd-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games in their home city, which should lead to fewer opportunities for the Suns.
The Nuggets have given up the 10th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.3) in the league to opposing squads over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce additional chances for scoring and assists).
As a team, the Phoenix Suns have been bad at drawing fouls on the road: 4th-worst in the league this year, averaging a measly 20.9 foul shots per game.