Kevin Durant Points - Player Prop Bet 5/7/2023

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Kevin Durant

NBA · Player Props

Kevin Durant

F · Phoenix Suns

Points

Phoenix Suns vs Denver Nuggets · May 7, 2023

Updated May 8, 2023 12:01 AM EST

Analysis

Kevin Durant Points Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-105/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 29.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 31.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Kevin Durant has attempted 22.6 shots per game over the last 5 games, 4.0 higher than he's attempted over the course of the year.
Kevin Durant has averaged 36.1 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the league: 99th percentile.
The Phoenix Suns check in as the 7th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Kevin Durant has successfully made 6.7 foul shots per game this year, putting him in the 98th percentile out of all players in the league.
Kevin Durant will receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing in your home city tends to improves player production across the board.

Favors Under

Kevin Durant has averaged 3.0 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.8 higher than he's averaged in all games this season.
The matchup against the Nuggets is a tough one for threes; opposing starting PFs have totaled the 15th-least three-pointers per game in the NBA this year (1.3).
The Phoenix Suns have played at the 9th-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA this year.
The Nuggets have played at the 4th-most sluggish pace in the league over the last 25 games, which ought to lead to fewer possessions for the Suns.
Without the home court advantage, the Nuggets have given up the 4th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.9) in the NBA to opposing teams over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create added chances for scoring and assists).

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