Kevin Durant Points - Player Prop Bet 5/1/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Kevin Durant

F · Phoenix Suns

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns · May 1, 2023

Updated May 2, 2023 2:01 AM EST

Analysis

Kevin Durant Points Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-106/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 29.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 29.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Kevin Durant has played 41.8 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 6.0 higher than he's played overall this year.
The Phoenix Suns have played at the 10th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games on the road.
The Phoenix Suns have been the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league on the road this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Kevin Durant has converted 8.2 free throws per game over the last 5 games on the road, 1.4 higher than he's made overall this year when playing on the road.
The matchup against the Nuggets may be a good one for drawing fouls; the other team's starting PFs have attempted a whopping 4.8 foul shots per game over the last 10 games (28th-most in the league).

Favors Under

Kevin Durant has attempted a measly 18.2 shots per game this year, quite a bit lower than his 20.2 mark last year.
Kevin Durant has tallied 0.2 technical fouls per game this year, making him one of the most most-whistled players in the NBA when it comes to getting T'ed up (99th percentile).
The matchup against the Nuggets is a difficult one for threes; the opposition's starting PFs have totaled the 15th-least three-pointers per game in the league this year (1.3).
The Nuggets have played at the 4th-least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 25 games, which should reduce possessions for the Suns.
The Nuggets have given up the 8th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.2) in the NBA to the other team over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to new opportunities for scoring and assists).