Kevin Durant Points - Player Prop Bet 4/16/2023

NBA · Player Props

Kevin Durant

F · Phoenix Suns

Points

Phoenix Suns vs LA Clippers · Apr 16, 2023

Updated Apr 17, 2023 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Kevin Durant Points Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-145/+115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 26.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Kevin Durant has averaged 23.3 points per game while playing at home this year, placing him in the 93rd percentile -- among the league leaders by this standard.
Kevin Durant has successfully made 2.0 threes per game this year, putting him in the 85th percentile among all players in the league.
Kevin Durant has averaged 33.5 minutes per game while playing at home this year, putting him in the 91st percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA.
The matchup against Los Angeles is a positive one; when the Clippers are away from home, they have allowed the 30th-most points per game in the NBA to opposing starting PFs this year (17.2).
The Phoenix Suns have been the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

The Phoenix Suns have been the 4th-lowest scoring offense in the league over the last 25 games with the home court advantage.
The Phoenix Suns have played at the 8th-least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 5 games when playing at home.
The Clippers have played at the 7th-most lethargic pace in the league this year, which ought to decrease possessions for the Suns.
The Clippers have given up the 7th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.7) in the NBA to their opposition over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
The matchup against Los Angeles is a tough one for getting to the free throw line; opposing starting PFs have attempted a mere 3.1 free throws per game this year when the Clippers are the visiting squad (9th-least in the league).