Kevin Durant Points - Player Prop Bet 4/4/2023

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Kevin Durant

NBA · Player Props

Kevin Durant

F · Phoenix Suns

Points

Phoenix Suns vs San Antonio Spurs · Apr 4, 2023

Updated Apr 5, 2023 2:16 AM EST

Analysis

Kevin Durant Points Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-102/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 26.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 26.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Kevin Durant has scored 23.0 points per game while at home since the start of last season, putting him in the 95th percentile -- among the league's best by this metric.
Kevin Durant has converted 1.9 three-point shots per game this year, putting him in the 82nd percentile among all players in the league.
Kevin Durant has played 30.5 minutes per game on his home court since the start of last season, ranking in the 86th percentile -- ranking among the most used players in the NBA.
The matchup against the Spurs is a positive one; they have allowed the 30th-most points per game in the NBA to the opposition's starting PFs over the last 5 games (23.3).
The Spurs have played at the quickest pace in the league over the last 25 games, which should lead to more opportunities for the Suns.

Favors Under

The Phoenix Suns have played at the 7th-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games.
The Spurs have allowed the 7th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.1) in the league to the other team over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce added opportunities for scoring and assists).
As a team, the Phoenix Suns have been quite unsuccesful at drawing fouls: 3rd-worst in the league this year, tallying a lowly 21.7 free throws per game.

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