Kevin Durant Points - Player Prop Bet 3/31/2023

NBA · Player Props

Kevin Durant

F · Phoenix Suns

Points

Phoenix Suns vs Denver Nuggets · Mar 31, 2023

Updated Apr 1, 2023 1:58 AM EST

Analysis

Kevin Durant Points Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -103 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Kevin Durant has attempted 18.0 field goals per game on his home court since the start of last season, ranking in the 96th percentile among all players in the NBA.
Kevin Durant has successfully made 1.9 three-pointers per game this year, placing him in the 81st percentile among all players in the league.
Kevin Durant has been on the court for 28.0 minutes per game with the home court advantage since the start of last season, placing him in the 80th percentile -- putting him among the most-utilized players in the NBA.
Kevin Durant has committed 0.0 personal fouls per game with the home court advantage since the start of last season, placing him in the 6th percentile -- among the NBA's least-whistled.
The Phoenix Suns rank as the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create new chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

The matchup vs. the Nuggets is a difficult one; they have given up the 15th-least points per game in the NBA to opposing starting PFs this year (13.2).
The Nuggets have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games, which ought to reduce plays for the Suns.
Away from home, the Nuggets have allowed the 5th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.7) in the league to opposing clubs over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to new opportunities for scoring and assists).
As a team, the Phoenix Suns have been quite unsuccesful at drawing fouls: 2nd-worst in the league this year, tallying a lowly 21.6 free throws per game.
The matchup vs. the Nuggets may be a tough one for drawing fouls; the opposition's starting PFs have attempted a mere 1.6 free throws per game over the last 20 games (15th-least in the league).