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Keon Johnson

Keon Johnson Points
Player Prop - 1/25/2025

Brooklyn Nets vs Miami Heat

Keon Johnson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Keon Johnson has attempted 12.3 shots per game over the last 15 games, 3.5 higher than he's attempted overall this year.

Keon Johnson has played 30.6 minutes per game over the last 5 games with the home court advantage, 7.4 more than he's played over the course of the season at home.

The Nets check in as the 8th-most aggressive offense in the NBA this year with respect to 3-point attempts.

This year, the other team's starting SGs have tallied 6.3 three attempts per game (highest in the league) vs. the Miami Heat, designating this as a strong matchup.

The Nets are expected to get a boost in possessions in this game from sharing the court with the 6th-most up-tempo pace-of-play away offense in the league over the last 23 games (the Heat).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Keon Johnson has averaged 2.4 personal fouls per game this year, placing him among the highest-fouling players in the NBA (84th percentile).

The Nets have played at the 3rd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 20 games.

The Brooklyn Nets rank as the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league while at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).

The matchup vs. Miami may be a tough one for drawing fouls; the other team's starting SGs have attempted a measly 1.0 foul shots per game over the last 5 games when the Miami Heat are the visiting team (4th-least in the NBA).

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