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Keon Ellis

Keon Ellis Points
Player Prop - 4/16/2025

Sacramento Kings vs Dallas Mavericks

Keon Ellis Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Keon Ellis has made 2.8 three-point shots per game over the last 5 games at home, 0.8 higher than he's made from 3-point range overall this season while on his home court.

Keon Ellis has tallied 34.0 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 9.7 more than he's tallied over the course of the season.

The Kings check in as the 10th-highest scoring offense in the league this year.

The matchup against Dallas is a good one for 3-point shots; when the Mavericks are on the road, the opposition's starting PGs have averaged the 9th-most shots from behind the three-point arc per game in the league this year (2.4).

The Kings will likely see a rise in opportunities in this contest from sharing the court with the 6th-speediest pace visiting team in the NBA over the last 10 games (the Mavericks).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Keon Ellis has been called for 3.2 personal fouls per game over the last 10 games on his home court, 0.9 more than he's been called for in all games this season at home.

The Sacramento Kings have played at the 2nd-slowest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games.

The Sacramento Kings have been the 7th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games on their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).

Over the last 20 games, the other team's starting PGs have attempted 2.9 foul shots per game (fewest in the NBA) vs. the Mavericks, struggling to draw fouls.

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