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Keon Ellis

Keon Ellis Points
Player Prop - 1/6/2025

Sacramento Kings vs Miami Heat

Keon Ellis Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-133/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -133.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Keon Ellis has converted 40.1% of his three-pointers this year, ranking in the 84th percentile out of all players in the NBA.

The matchup against the Miami Heat is a favorable one for three-point attempts; the opposition's starting SGs have totaled the most three attempts per game in the league this year (6.3).

The 9th-speediest tempo team in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Kings.

The Sacramento Kings rank as the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added opportunities for scoring and assists).

Keon Ellis has sunk 90.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 15 games, 12.8% higher than he's converted overall this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With respect to 3-point attempts, the 5th-least aggressive team in the league when playing at home this year has been the Sacramento Kings.

The Heat have played at the 3rd-most lethargic tempo in the NBA over the last 20 games, which ought to lead to decreased plays for the Sacramento Kings.

Over the last 5 games when they have the home court advantage, the opposing team's starting SGs have attempted 1.0 free throws per game (4th-fewest in the NBA) against the Heat, finding it difficult to draw fouls.

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