Kelly Olynyk Points - Player Prop Bet 2/14/2024

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Kelly Olynyk

NBA · Player Props

Kelly Olynyk

F-C · Toronto Raptors

Points

Toronto Raptors vs Indiana Pacers · Feb 14, 2024

Updated Feb 15, 2024 12:33 AM EST

Analysis

Kelly Olynyk Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-123/-111).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -121 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Kelly Olynyk has converted 63.4% of his field goals over the last 10 games, 8.3% more than he's sunk overall this year.
Compared to last year's 3.4 mark, Kelly Olynyk's personal fouls per game have tailed off this year to 2.6.
The Indiana Pacers have played at the 2nd-most up-tempo pace in the league this year, which ought to lead to more plays for the Toronto Raptors.
The Toronto Raptors check in as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games while on their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists).
Over the last 25 games when they are on their home court, opposing teams have brought down 9.4 offensive rebounds per game (8th-fewest in the NBA) against the Pacers (diminishing possessions that could otherwise produce more chances for offense).

Favors Under

Relative to last year's 28.5 rate, Kelly Olynyk's playing time has fallen this year to 20.5 minutes per game.
The Raptors check in as the lowest scoring offense in the league over the last 5 games.
This year, opposing squads have shot 50.6% on shot attempts from the field (best in the league) against the Pacers, making this a good matchup.
The 8th-slowest pace-of-play home team in the league this year has been the Raptors.
This year, their opposition has attempted 26.8 free throws per game (highest in the league) against the Pacers, finding it easy to draw fouls.

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